Polymarket Trader Loses Over $11 Million on 2026 World Cup Bets in 10 Days

A Polymarket account known as “coldsway” has lost $11.6 million betting on the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with only four of 15 positions finishing in profit. The wallet achieved these substantial losses in only 10 days.

Polymarket data shows coldsway’s win rate stood at 26.7%. The trader earned $4.23 million on four winning bets but lost $15.86 million across the remaining 11 positions.

A String of Failed Favorite Bets

The largest single hit came from a $4.9 million wager that Morocco would not win its July 4 match, a position that resolved against the trader for a complete loss. A $3.1 million bet against Canada and losses tied to Portugal, Belgium, and Spain further eroded the account’s balance.

Coldsway’s four winning trades came from smaller, contrarian positions, including a draw bet on Australia versus Egypt that returned more than $1.1 million and a Ghana spread against Colombia worth a similar sum.

The pattern mirrors broader losses tied to the tournament, as Polymarket’s World Cup markets have drawn billions in volume since the group stage began. Large favorite-side bets have repeatedly backfired when underdogs forced draws or pulled off upsets.

Other Traders Have Suffered Similar Blowouts

Coldsway is not the only bettor to get burned this tournament. A pseudonymous trader called FlickRaw lost roughly $4.2 million in under a day in mid-June. FlickRaw first put $2.7 million on the Netherlands to beat Japan, a bet wiped out by a late Japanese equalizer that sealed a 2-2 draw.

The same trader then risked $1.5 million on Belgium against Egypt a day later, only for that match to also end in a draw. Both positions had been promoted by Polymarket ahead of kickoff.

A separate upset cost bettors on Spain roughly $1 million when Cape Verde held the European champions to a scoreless draw, a result that instead delivered a windfall to a trader betting against Spain.

Coldsway’s account remains active heading into the knockout rounds, where a handful of live positions could still shift the trader’s total. Whether the account recovers any of its losses will depend on how the remaining matches unfold.