Jamie Dimon Won’t Buy S&P 500 or Bonds. Here Are the Warnings Investors Are Missing

Jamie Dimon should be happy with how the US market is doing after reporting JPMorgan’s best quarter ever. However, he says he won’t touch the S&P 500 or long-dated bonds at today’s prices.

The JPMorgan Chase chief executive laid out several warnings on The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost. His comments came days after posting the largest quarterly profit in US banking history.

Four Warnings From the Top of Wall Street

Throughout the podcast, Frost quizzed the CEO on his stance across stocks and bonds, with Dimon issuing some telling warnings for general investors.

On the S&P 500 specifically, Frost asked whether Dimon was a buyer at current levels. Dimon dodged the index and said he trades name by name, not the market as a whole. He confirmed he has not bought any equities recently, and when Frost asked if markets are pricing in a perfect outcome, Dimon said the scenario looks good, but not perfect.

Together, those answers point to a CEO who sees little room for error at today’s prices, without an S&P 500 buyer in JPMorgan’s own chief executive.

Frost then asked directly whether Dimon would buy long-dated government bonds. Dimon did not hedge.

“Personally, no. I would not be a buyer.”

Dimon pointed to interest rates as the reason for not going with bonds. Even if inflation cooled to 2%, he said, the 10-year Treasury yield should sit near 4% to 4.5%. Short-term rates should be near 3.25% to 3.5%, he added, and markets are already close to those levels. That leaves little upside left to buy for, in his view.

Dimon also tied bond risk to swelling government deficits. He recalled how US inflation climbed from 3.5% to 11% through the 1970s, a stretch when deficits also built up. He pointed to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s call to scrutinize how inflation data gets calculated. Warsh’s own Fed rate hike odds turned sharply hawkish in June.

Finally, Dimon flagged a wider set of dangers. These include the war in Ukraine, tension with Iran, rising military spending worldwide, and the US-China relationship. He likened them to tectonic plates that could shift and combine unexpectedly.

“Those risks are probably bigger than other people think.”

Dimon acknowledged, however, that none of these threats might turn into an actual crisis. He said the global economy has grown more resilient and less energy-dependent. He pointed to how markets absorbed the Iran war oil shock earlier this year. Still, resilience does not remove the chance of a sudden tipping point, he cautioned.

Record Profits, Cautious Words

JPMorgan posted net income of $21.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 41% from a year earlier. It marks the highest quarterly profit any US bank has ever reported.

Equity trading revenue jumped 86% year over year to $6 billion. That helped drive a record bank earnings season across all five of the largest US lenders.

Dimon called the environment nearly ideal for banks. He cited heavy trading volumes and elevated asset prices, but still said the run will not last forever.

Dimon’s skepticism echoes other market voices this year.

Peter Schiff has argued the next bond market crash warning could start in Treasurys rather than Bitcoin (BTC). JPMorgan’s own chief executive is stepping back from stocks and bonds near record highs.

That raises a question for risk assets broadly, crypto included. Will Wall Street’s caution eventually catch up with the price action?