SpaceX Stock Price Prediction: Recovery Rally or More Pain Ahead?

Highlights SpaceX stock price closed at a record low of $108 on July 31. The shares face more volatility ahead of the August 4 earnings release. The looming unlock of 911 million SpaceX shares on August 6 also continues to weigh on the stock.

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock price dropped by 3.41% on July 31, to close at its lowest price since the June 12 IPO of $108. In July 2026 alone, SPCX dropped by 36% from $171 on July 1. This drop has sparked discussions of whether this stock can recover or continue its drop to below $100.

These concerns are emerging ahead of two events: August 4 earnings and August 6 share unlocks. These two events could increase the stock’s volatility.
SpaceX Stock Price Tumbles Amid Aggressive Short Positioning
SpaceX stock price has dropped from an all-time high of $225 seen on June 16 to an all-time low of $108. This drop has led to the company wiping out $1.6 trillion in value from its market cap.

The drop comes as short sellers increase their positions on the stock. S3 Partners notes that 39% of the shares that are available for public trading, equivalent to 219.3 million shares, have been shorted.

SpaceX now ranks as the most shorted public company in the US per a report by NBC News.

CoinGape also earlier reported that SPCX short sellers have made $20 billion in paper profits so far, but most of them are not exiting their positions. This suggests that they expect the stock to drop further.
SPCX Bull Case: Why the Stock Could Recover
SpaceX will report its first quarterly earnings since the June 12 IPO on August 4. Analysts expect the company’s revenue to come in at between $6.72 billion and $6.9 billion.

If the earnings beat these expectations, SpaceX stock price could recover. But reporting lower revenues than expected could cause another drop.

The recent launch of SpaceX’s 13th Starship test flight also led to Bernstein reiterating an outperform rating on the stock, while giving it a target price of $239.

William Blair also recently raised the target for SpaceX’s adjusted earnings per share from $8.20 to $8.60, saying the company could benefit from its growing data center business.

If Wall Street’s bullish outlook on SpaceX shares lifts the market sentiment, it could aid in the stock’s recovery even as traders consider a potential merger with Tesla.
SPCX Bear Case: Why More Pain May Be Ahead
SpaceX stock price could drop if the company’s revenue falls below the $6.72 billion to $6.9 billion that Wall Street expects.

However, analysts are raising concerns about the 911.5 million insider shares that will become available for sale for the first time since the IPO occurred on June 12.

The director of research at S3, Sam Pierson, notes that these shares will push SpaceX stock price down even if the earnings are positive.
“There won’t be anything announced on earnings that will overcome the volume of unlocked shares coming to market,” Pierson said.
The analyst also noted that this unlocking event is one of the many reasons why traders are shorting the stock.
SpaceX Technical Outlook and Price Prediction
SpaceX stock price closed at an all-time low price of $108 on July 31. If this drop continues, the stock could move to the 123.6% Fib of $79.

The RSI reading of 31 supports a bearish SpaceX price forecast. It suggests that selling pressure remains high, and this could push SPX to below $100.

The MACD line that is negative also confirms that the momentum is favoring bears.

Still, the traders selling SpaceX shares could be near exhaustion after four straight weeks of selling and this could create room for SpaceX stock to gain.

However, SPCX shares need to close above $135 for traders who purchased during the IPO to become profitable.

If SPCX closes above $135, it could also lift sentiment and bring buyers back.
What’s Next for SpaceX Stock Price?
SpaceX stock price likely faces another drop if insiders sell $116 billion worth of shares on August 6 once the restrictions around selling lift.

The 219 million shares that short sellers are shorting also suggest that the market sentiment is negative, as many traders anticipate another drop.

Still, Wall Street analysts note that while the price might drop in the near term, it could gain once the initial sell-off from traders who purchased during the IPO ends.