Bitcoin bull market ‘confirmed’ but $90K presents profit-taking risk: Analysis

Written by William Subergstaff writerReviewed by Charles Bennettstaff editorWritten by William Subergstaff writerReviewed by Charles Bennettstaff editorBitcoin bull market ‘confirmed’ but $90K presents profit-taking risk: AnalysisMarketsPublishedSep 23, 2026<!–>

BTC price analysis concluded that onchain signals had “confirmed” the new Bitcoin bull market.

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Bitcoin (BTC) faces its “next real test” at $90,000 as traders continue to return to unrealized profit.

Key points:

• Bitcoin profit-takers may stall BTC price upside at $90,000, CryptoQuant predicts.
• Onchain signals, including price reclaiming its 365-day moving average at $80,500, led analysts to call the start of the next bull market.
• CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju sees future cycle tops and bottoms as shallower thanks to institutional ownership.

Profit-taking means “natural pause” for BTC price at $90,000

In its latest weekly report issued on Tuesday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant warned that the area around $90,000 will bring increased odds of profit-taking should price reach it.

Bitcoin traders’ realized price — the average acquisition price of BTC that last moved onchain between one and three months ago — currently sits at $64,300. CryptoQuant data shows upper and lower bands around this level, signifying profit or loss margins for this cohort of the supply. The “upper band” for profit-taking sits at $90,300, or 40% above the realized price.

“The upper band coincides with the $88K–$90K on-chain supply cluster, making it the next resistance to clear. Historically, as price approaches the upper band, trader profit margins stretch and selling can intensify — a natural pause point within an uptrend, not a reversal,” CryptoQuant analysts stated.

Bitcoin trader realized price data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

The report describes the path between current spot price at $86,000 and the profit-taking zone as “largely clear” while seeing no return to bear-market conditions.

“The bull market is confirmed. Technicals, valuation and on-chain data now point the same way — up,” it continued, echoing a previous assertion from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.

In an X post this week, Ki saw future Bitcoin price cycles becoming less extreme than previous ones thanks to a shift from retail to institutional BTC ownership. 

“Today, a much larger market and growing institutional ownership are dampening both extremes. The same forces that limit the upside also soften the downside,” he wrote.

Bitcoin profitability stabilizes in 2026

Ki noted that during the 2026 bear market, Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio did not fall below its breakeven point of 1 at any point, signaling that the broader investor base remained in aggregate profit throughout — a clear contrast to prior macro downtrends.

Related: Bitcoin adds to bull-market hopes as price metric prints fourth-ever bullish cross

As Cointelegraph reported, MVRV has now crossed above its 365-day moving average — an event that signaled the end of both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.

Bitcoin MVRV ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

New capital inflows to Bitcoin remain notably high this month. The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows of $1.7 billion for the first two days of the week, per data from UK-based investment company Farside Investors. Monday’s $999 million tally constituted the largest single-day total since October 2025.

Bitcoin ETF netflows data. Source: Farside Investors

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